Переведено с использщованием AI
id: 61262
date: 4/21/2006 4:36
refid: 06DUSHANBE745
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
destination: 05DUSHANBE1553
header:
VZCZCXRO0093
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0745/01 1110436
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 210436Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7290
INFO RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8497
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1484
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1488
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1534
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1555
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1546
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1317
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1570
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1101
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0892
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1534
RULSDMK/DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000745
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR, EB, S/P
NSC FOR MILLARD, MERKEL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ENRG, ECON, EAID, AF, TI
SUBJECT: BADAKHSHAN TO BADAKHSHAN: TAJIKS REACHING ACROSS THE BORDER
TO AFGHANS
REF: 05 DUSHANBE 1553
DUSHANBE 00000745 001.2 OF 002
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: «We consider Afghanistan like our
own.»
Ayubek Bekmurodov, Deputy to the Governor of Tajikistan’s remote
Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region said his government was
looking at ways to increase trade, the power supply, and food
and humanitarian aid to the Afghan regions across the river.
Bekmurodov said a significant barrier to integration was the
Afghans’ lack of passports. The
Tajiks hope to export
electricity across the river, and can accelerate that process
once transmission lines are installed to remote Afghan villages.
Integrating their trade and
infrastructure could go a long way
towards boosting the economies of these poor, isolated regions
and thus help stabilize and secure the border. END SUMMARY.
2. (SBU) In an hour-long meeting at the government
offices in
Khorog April 19, Bekmurodov explained to PolOff and visiting
Afghan Reconstruction Officers from Kabul, how Tajik authorities
plan to establish a Free Trade Zone in Tajikistan’s
Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), from its capital
Khorog to Ishkashim. Bridges
connect the countries at both
points, and already weekly markets near the crossings indicate
the potential for increased commerce and trade. The GBAO
governor led a delegation to Afghanistan’s Konduz and Takhar
provinces in March, and is planning a trip to Faisobad in
Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province in early May. Bekmurodov
noted the two regions’ fates are tied together. «If things go
badly for them, they go badly for us.
We must help them.» In
the winter, the Tajiks provided flour and food and some medical
assistance.
3. (SBU) Bekmurodov assessed that bureaucratic
barriers
prevent more integration between the regions. Without
identification, Afghans cannot cross easily into Tajikistan, and
take advantage of the roads, telephones and other services. He
noted the need for a special Tajik internal visa for the GBAO
region was another hassle, but predicted that would be abolished
by the government soon. (COMMENT: This has been talked about for
several years. END COMMENT.)
4. (SBU) A second challenge is the climate and road
conditions. Using the two-lane
paved Tajik road, instead of the
donkey footpath on the Afghan side, would allow Afghans to
travel to villages along the river faster. However, those roads
are not always clear. According
to Bekmurodov, GBAO had more
than 800 avalanches this winter, many along the main road along
the Pyanzh river border. The tracks
of the aging bulldozers
clearing the avalanches rip up the asphalt on the newly paved
parts of the road. New bulldozers
on wheels would clear the
roads faster, but even a used Caterpillar costs upwards of
$150,000.
5. (SBU) According to Bekmurodov, the power situation
in
Khorog and the surrounding districts has improved markedly in
the last year, since PamirEnergy brought online upgraded power
stations in October 2005 (reftel).
Khorog now has electricity
around the clock. Bekmurudov
noted that cost recovery had been
a problem in that past, but customers were «learning» why they
needed to pay their bills (septel).
Authorities were hoping to
export up to one megawatt to villages directly across from
Khorog this summer. Proposed
plans for a 100 MW power station
100 km north of Khorog include selling power to Badakhshan,
Takhar and Konduz provinces.
6. (SBU) COMMENT:
Bekmurodov’s interest and concern for
Afghanistan were representative of comments from other officials
and citizens of GBAO. There is a
great deal of empathy for
their «brothers and sisters» across the river, and a growing
effort to turn empathy into action and integration. The Embassy
will look for ways in which it can support these cross-border
DUSHANBE 00000745 002.2 OF 002
initiatives, particularly for infrastructure. END COMMENT.
7. (SBU) BIO NOTE:
Bekmurodov is a dynamic, young, former
pilot with a biology degree who has temporarily left a lucrative
tour business for government service.
His guided tours to hunt
the rare Marco Polo sheep in eastern Tajikistan are rumored to
cost $10,000 per sheep and attract high-end spenders. Regarding
his 18 months in the Governor’s office, he asked, «What else can
I do?» Adding, «We need
new ideas in the government.» He
mentioned he had been to the United States numerous times to
visit hunting clients. The
24-year-old technical advisor at
PamirEnergy praised Bekmurodov and the Governor’s team, and
noted the Governor had replaced «all the old bureaucrats with
young people.»
SIGNATURE
HOAGLAND
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61286
date: 4/21/2006 8:59
refid: 06DUSHANBE748
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 06DUSHANBE326|06DUSHANBE711
header:
VZCZCXRO0321
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHDBU #0748/01 1110859
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 210859Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7296
INFO RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8503
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1572
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1557
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1486
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1490
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1536
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1103
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0894
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1319
RUEHML/AMEMBASSY MANILA 0043
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
—————— header ends —————-
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000748
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
EMBASSY MANILA: PLEASE PASS TO ADB AMBASSADOR SPELTZ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ENRG, ECON, EAID, AF, TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN’S NEW MAGIC WORD? DAST-I-ZHUM!
REF: A) DUSHANBE 711 B) DUSHANBE 326
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, US Embassy
Dushanbe, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Want to take a helicopter ride with the
Deputy Prime Minister and three of Tajikistan’s most influential
energy players? Say
«Dast-i-Zhum»— a proposed 4000 MW
hydropower station on the Tajik-Afghan border — and the Tajik
government pays attention, rallying busy ministers and scarce
aviation resources to bring guests for an aerial view of the dam
site on the Pyanzh River. The
April 17 flight not only afforded
PolOff and visiting water and energy experts from Embassy Kabul
a birds’ eye view of proposed project, it offered an opportunity
for Deputy Prime Minister Ghulomov to pitch his government’s
case for the mega project to the United States. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) The helicopter excursion
and its high-level participants
indicated just how serious the Tajiks are about attracting
interest in Dast-i-Zhum. PolOff
and Embassy Kabul’s Afghan
Reconstruction Group (ARG) advisors had originally planned to
travel by land, but when the National Bank Chairman Alimardonov
heard of their plans to visit Dast-i-Zhum (reftel A), within 24
hours he had arranged not only helicopter transport, but also
extraordinarily high-level attention.
Alimardonov excused
himself to PolOff April 15, by noting that he had to travel to
Washington the following day and would regrettably not be
available. In addition to
Ghulomov, the party included Minister
of Energy Nurmamatov, Minister of Water Abdukohir Nazirov and
newly appointed head of the state electric company Barqi Tojik,
Sharif Samiyev. (NOTE: Three days earlier, PolOff and ARG
visitors waited for 45 minutes to see Samiyev, who after 25
minutes, with uncharacteristic frankness for a Tajik official,
excused himself, noting he was still in the process of
organizing his company and suggested she call on him again in a
month. END NOTE.)
3. (SBU) During a meeting prior
to the flight, Ghulomov gave
the standard Dast-i-Zhum talking points the Tajik government has
promoted the past year (reftel B).
According to Tajik
estimates, the 4000 MW project would provide power for
Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and eventual export to Pakistan and
India. The irrigation benefits
could open 1.5 million hectares
of new agricultural lands in northern Afghanistan, potentially
employing up to 3 million people in farming. He touted the
counternarcotics benefit of diverting Afghan agriculture away
from poppies towards more high-value crops such as potatoes,
carrots, onions and potentially even cotton.
4. (C) Attendance was clearly
mandatory. Standing in
Ghulomov’s waiting room, as various aides called the airport to
arrange the trip, PolOff offered to Energy Minister Nurmamatov
that the Embassy group could drive as planned, after meeting the
Deputy Prime Minister. He smiled,
openly relieved. «But you
need to be the one to suggest it!» he cautioned. When PolOff
proposed to Ghulomov that he may already have a packed schedule
and did not need to spend half a day going to the border, he
smiled and said, «I am a busy man, but my President told me this
was what I was to do this morning.»
(Nurmamatov then sighed and
slumped in his chair.) Samiyev
burst into the pre-flight
meeting 25 minutes late, clearly flustered and not sure why he
had been summoned.
5. (C) During the flight, while
Ghulomov pointed out the window
and examined various maps and charts with EmbOffs, the rest of
the delegation napped or stared out of the helicopter. Energy
Minster Nurmamatov begrudgingly smiled a few times, but Water
Minister Nazirov, obviously disgruntled about being there, would
not engage in conversation and brushed off PolOff’s attempts to
make conversation or talk about the project. After 90 minutes,
the helicopter deposited EmbOffs near Zigar, on the Pyanzh
River, to continue their trip by vehicle. Even Ghulomov seemed
DUSHANBE 00000748 002 OF 002
eager to depart; he made cursory conversation with the local
officials greeting his arrival, and quickly boarded the chopper.
6. (SBU) COMMENT: If seeing is believing, the trip may have
fulfilled the Tajiks’ intentions of impressing the Americans and
showing that Dast-i-Zhum has real potential. The aerial view
demonstrated to the visiting experts that the site was much
better than it appeared on paper; few villages would be flooded
by the proposed dam and the rock structure of the surrounding
mountains was better to anchor a dam than other proposed
hydropower sites along the Pyanzh.
The project provides more
than just cheaper electricity — the expanded irrigation areas
could help stabilize and boost northern Afghanistan’s economy
through increased agriculture.
7. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: To realize the grand vision of
Dast-i-Zhum, the Tajiks will need to demonstrate an
extraordinary amount of cooperation with their Afghan neighbors,
as well as a responsiveness to donor requirements that has thus
far not been evident. The
estimated price tag of $3.5 billion
is too big for donors alone to fund; private investors will need
to be involved. To attract them,
the Afghans and Tajiks will
need a credit-worthy buyer of electricity, like Pakistan or
India, to ensure cost recovery.
Embassy Dushanbe has proposed a
series of next steps, including bilateral working groups to
resolve issues of water and electricity (septel). In addition,
Tajikistan may have to come to terms with Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan on water rights, not an easy task in the current
environment. Still, Dast-i-Zhum
could go a long way in
integrating the region economically and providing energy
sufficiency for Tajikistan and Afghanistan and increased power
to Pakistan and India. To get
there will require a lot of heavy
lifting and handholding. The key
will be private and public
international financial backing.
END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61482
date: 4/24/2006 9:34
refid: 06DUSHANBE751
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
destination:
header:
VZCZCXRO2038
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0751/01 1140934
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 240934Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7302
INFO RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8509
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1559
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1574
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 1548
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1538
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 1492
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1503
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1488
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1377
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1321
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1536
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1575
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1105
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0896
—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000751
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR P, S/P, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: UNTOP AND
OSCE SPONSOR FIRST PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION-YEAR DIPLOMATIC ROUNDTABLE
DUSHANBE 00000751 001.2 OF 003
1. (U) Sensitive but
unclassified. Please handle accordingly.
Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) The UN Secretary General’s Special
Representative for
the Tajikistan Office for Peace Building (UNTOP), Ambassador
Vladimir Sotirov (secunded to the UN from the Bulgarian Foreign
Ministry), conducted on April 19 the first ambassadorial-level
roundtable of this presidential election year. OSCE
co-sponsored the event. The U.S.
Chief of Mission was the only
Ambassador present other than Sotirov.
Other missions,
including OSCE, sent deputies or lower-level officers.
3. (U) Ambassador Sotirov, a
highly skilled international
diplomat with enormous experience and broad contacts and
personal respect in Tajikistan’s political world, gave an
in-depth briefing. Although it’s
not yet announced, he said
Government of Tajikistan officials have confirmed to him
November 6 will be the date for the presidential election. The
chairman of the Central Committee for Elections and Referenda
(CCER) told Sotirov he expects two to three presidential
candidates will be nominated in addition to Rahmonov.
4. (U) While election activity
has not formally commenced, and
while the political atmosphere is relatively calm and stable, it
is clear this is an election year, Sotirov said. Political
parties are gearing up their activities, splits in the small
«democratic» parties have emerged (whether instigated by
ruling-party dirty tricks or simply by egoism is unclear), and
lively, even acrimonious, debate is taking place in independent
media like «Asia-Plus,» «Biznis i Politika,» and
party
newspapers. Every party has
established a web site. Although
these media debates do not reach the majority of the electorate,
surprisingly free-wheeling political discourse is taking place
in public.
5. (U) According to Sotirov,
significant parts of the Tajik
citizenry do not view a multi-party system positively. The word
«opposition» evokes for them memories of the 1992-97 civil
war,
and they would be more comfortable with a one-party state, so
long as it is politically benign, economically progressive, and
socially protective. He added
that competition among the
parties is more about struggling for power than ideology.
6. (SBU) Sotirov provided the
following analysis of the parties:
— The ruling Peoples Democratic Party of Tajikistan feels
comfortable in power and confident of its re-election. That
said, President Rahmonov is holding high-profile town meetings
with special interest groups, like women, youth, and the
intelligentsia, where he makes a real effort to listen to their
concerns.
— The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) has two
increasingly competing factions:
the pro-Western modernizers
and the old-guard Islamists. This
is the party the government
fears most, and will likely pull out all the dirty-trick stops
to hobble it — e.g., the current Dushanbe Water Authority’s
libel case against IRPT Chairman Nuri, who in any case is an
absentee leader because of his serious health problems.
— The Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) is likely to
nominate its chairman, former presidential adviser Zoirov, as a
presidential candidate. His role,
however, will be largely
rhetorical, arguing stridently and pedantically that President
Rahmonov is already constitutionally illegitimate. Because
Zoirov is at least half ethnically Uzbek, there is considerable
DUSHANBE 00000751 002.2 OF 003
doubt whether he could ever be taken seriously by the population
at large, apart from his judicial-intelligentsia, big-city base.
— With Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) Chairman Mahmadruzi
Iskandarov imprisoned, the party is focusing on issues like
labor migration and energy security.
— The miniscule and insignificant Socialist Party of Tajikistan
(SPT) has broken into two wings, with the Gaffurov Wing already
announcing it will support President Rahmonov.
— The Communist Party of Tajikistan (CPT), surprisingly, is
currently consumed with a struggle for leadership between the
traditional Soviet and the modernizers’ wings.
— The Agrarian Party and the Party of Economic Reforms, new to
the scene, are generally considered to be government-created
«pocket parties» that may nominate candidates, especially if
the
more formal «opposition» parties decide to boycott the
election,
so that Rahmonov can say that he conducted a multi-party,
multi-candidate election.
7. (SBU) Sotirov noted Article 65
of the Constitution requires
a presidential candidate to collect signatures from five percent
of the electorate, or about 150,000.
Article 24 of the Law on
Presidential Elections requires that local government offices
(hokimats) need to «certify» each signature. CCER Chairman
Boltuyev told Sotirov he will not be overly strict about these
requirements, and commented he personally believes five percent
is too high, but the Constitution can only be changed by a
referendum, and there is no time for that before this election.
8. (SBU) The CCER has made a
commitment to conduct the best
election in Tajikistan’s short history.
To that end, it is
working closely with UNTOP and especially with the International
Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) to identify criticisms
from the past and its responsibilities under Tajik law and
international obligations, including to OSCE and CIS convention
standards.
9. (SBU) Sotirov asked IFES
Director Katherine Muller to brief
the roundtable on the status of her work with the CCER. She
distributed the IFES election project proposal, and the matrix
(with which the government has already concurred) identifying
specific areas for improvement in the conduct of the election.
The Ambassador said the State Department is strongly impressed
with the current work of IFES and its election project proposal,
will provide significant, but not complete, financial support to
implement it. He strongly urged
other missions dedicated to
advancing democracy to consider significant financial
contributions to the project.
10. (SBU) The OSCE representative
present noted that ODIHR will
provide commentary by June on the current Presidential Election
Law (which is separate from the Parliamentary Election Law that
was partially revised in 2004 for the February 2005 election),
and is considering sending an OSCE Needs Assessment Mission to
Tajikistan the first week of June.
11. (SBU) Sotirov announced that
Foreign Minister Talbak
Nazarov has officially requested a UN Election Needs Assessment,
and that the date will soon be fixed.
12. (SBU) The next UNTOP and OSCE
presidential election
roundtable has not been scheduled but will most likely coincide
with OSCE or UN Needs Assessment Mission and may include the
DUSHANBE 00000751 003.2 OF 003
chairman or other senior member of the CCER.
13. (SBU) COMMENT: We have noticed an increasing tendency for
the European Union’s bilateral Missions — the United Kingdom,
France, and Germany — to work in lockstep, which hampers U.S.
coalition building, since the EU too often chooses a
lowest-common-denominator position too late in the game to have
real influence. The U.S. Embassy
has already taken the lead to
advance transformational democracy with this presidential
election, and will continue to work closely with UNTOP’s
Ambassador Sotirov. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61483
date: 4/24/2006 9:35
refid: 06DUSHANBE752
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
destination:
header:
VZCZCXRO2046
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0752/01 1140935
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 240935Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7305
INFO RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8512
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1562
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1577
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 1551
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1541
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 1495
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1506
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1491
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1380
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1324
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHVKGOY/NSWTU PAC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1539
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1578
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1108
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0027
—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 000752
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR P, S/P, SCA/FO, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, INL, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, EAID, EINV, SOCI, KCOR, IR, CH, RS, TI
SUBJECT: RAHMONOV’S ANNUAL SPEECH TO PARLIAMENT ELECTION-YEAR
PERFORMANCE; U.S. ASSISTANCE DRAWS SPONTANEOUS APPLAUSE
REF: OSC CEP20060422950111
DUSHANBE 00000752 001.2 OF 004
1. (U) Sensitive but
unclassified. Please handle accordingly.
Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Rahmonov’s annual speech to the
nation, one of his longest in recent memory, was clearly a
populist election-year tract, but also a statesmanlike balancing
act that leaned, at times, toward reform, with an occasional
diatribe against corruption (officials hiding their wealth and
those who steal government funds intended for the
disadvantaged). Although the
focus was mostly domestic, in
foreign policy it maintained a relatively even balance among
Russia, the United States, and China, with the United States
being the only major power to receive spontaneous applause from
the audience because of it’s «no-strings-attached assistance for
Tajikistan.» Iran received
relatively short shrift as a
provider of economic assistance for major infrastructure
projects. The president’s
think-tank director views the speech
as a victory for reform and well-balanced international
relations. END SUMMARY.
3. (SBU) President of Tajikistan
Emomali Rahmonov delivered his
annual «state of the nation» speech to a joint session of
parliament April 20 (ref is full text in English). His cabinet,
chairmen of the various high courts, the diplomatic community,
and domestic and Russian press corps also attended, but
uniformed military commanders were noticeably absent. The
two-hour five-minute speech, coinciding with Tajikistan’s 15th
year of independence, was a laundry list of social and economic
development highlights and high-minded visions for the future
(e.g., tripling per capita GDP by 2015 to $1,000), but with few
new concrete initiatives, save one about property amnesty
(below). All in all, it was a
cautious, populist,
international-standard election-year speech. Although Rahmonov
frequently referred to the 15th anniversary of independence, and
gave a few passing nods to Kulob’s 2,700th anniversary
celebration (already now several years late because of
corruption in the preparations), he did not once mention that
2006 is his declared ‘Year of Aryan Culture,» possibly because
of frequently voiced international disapprobation, especially by
Germany.
4. (SBU) This speech was probably
Rahmonov’s least
forward-leaning of the last three years — long on statistics and
platitudes, but relatively short on new proposals — possibly
because he’s saving his big guns for later in this presidential
election year. In our analysis,
there were two areas of special
interest. One was his offer of
property amnesty, and the other
was his review of foreign relations.
PROPERTY AMNESTY PROPOSED
5. (U) Rahmonov is always most
interesting when he goes
off-text and speaks his own mind.
His prepared text had a
one-sentence proposal for a «property amnesty.» His off-text
explanation was the longest, and apparently most heart-felt, of
his entire speech. He said,
«People, the Civil War is over. We
need to know who owns what. We
need to regularize and register
and declare all properties and begin to pay taxes. The purpose
is to reduce corruption in the future.» Heatedly, he added,
«Honestly, it’s shameful that some ministries have become
‘family enterprises,’ with ill-gotten wealth registered in the
names of family members while the ministers appear to be
paupers. This has to stop! Where’s the transparency? The law
is for all! And the members of
parliament must be the first to
DUSHANBE 00000752 002.2 OF 004
comply.» He paused, glaring
at his uneasy audience, and then
asked, «Don’t you agree?»
The audience dutifully but certainly
uneasily responded with applause.
Not content, Rahmonov
continued his riff, «I mean, drive around town and look at all
the new mansions — they must be declared! If not, we will
confiscate these properties,» he thundered.
6. (SBU) COMMENT: In fact, Rahmonov himself is responsible for
this current sorry condition — a country more ruled by
off-the-books corruption than by law, and one where his own
family and clan members receive many benefits and privileges.
He has achieved his consolidation of power and Tajikistan’s
remarkable stability by in the past having sanctioned
rent-seeking as an expedient policy.
In Summer 2005, the
Ambassador was present when Rahmonov gave Afghanistan’s
President Hamid Karzai Dutch-uncle advice: «If you want
post-war stability, do as I did.
Bring the warlords out of the
mountains, anchor them in the cities, and let them get rich.»
To his credit, Rahmonov now realizes that it’s time to turn the
ocean-liner of this expedient but ultimately destructive policy,
and we believe that multiple international interventions have
helped him see this. But the
great irony, even hypocricy, is
that his own family, and certainly his Kulobi clan, may be one
of the greatest national violators.
Nevertheless, to provide a
weak defense for him, we would note that during the last year,
his «Family Bank» and its aggressive acquisitions have had a
much lower profile than in the past.
END COMMENT.
REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION
7. (U) A very long section of the
speech was Rahmonov’s vision
for the rehabilitation and new extension of the regional
infrastructure, with Tajikistan as the epicenter — especially
transportation routes, both road and rail, hydro-energy, and, to
a lesser extent, telecommunications.
Indeed, his vision
appeared lifted almost verbatim from Secretary Rice’s
Infrastructure Integration Initiative for Greater Central Asia.
STOP STEALING FROM ORPHANS!
8. (U) In an extremely long
central section of his speech,
Rahmonov ticked off his government’s increasing attention to and
expenditures for the social sector.
In a populist move, he
vowed beginning May 1 an increase of about $30 per month for
pensions of World War II veterans (still about 5,500 in the
country) and war widows. He noted
already increased salaries
for teachers, doctors, and scholars.
He said his government is
providing nearly $120 per month for each orphan and other youth
in state institutions.
(NOTE: A surprisingly high
government
commitment we cannot confirm, and that certainly isn’t reflected
in the quality of the facilities.
END NOTE.) Then, in his
second significant off-text departure, he said, «I challenge you
to visit an orphanage, as I do, and you will ask, ‘Where does
the money go?’ Look at the sorry
state of these poor children,
and you will know that the managers are stealing the money.»
Rahmonov thundered, «Stop this now, or you will suffer the same
fate as others who have neglected their charges!» (COMMENT:
This appears to be a reference to the officials now on trial for
dereliction of duty during the horrific Dushanbe Chorbog
Orphanage fire in January in which 17 special-needs children
perished. END COMMENT.)
FOREIGN RELATIONS: RUSSIA, THE
UNITED STATES, CHINA, AND, UM,
THE OTHERS
DUSHANBE 00000752 003.2 OF 004
9. (U) Rahmonov opened the final
section of his speech —
foreign policy — by acknowledging that although national
interests must always come first, it’s totally normal that world
powers are competing for influence in Central Asia because of
their global interests. He listed
three for special influence
and contributions.
10. (U) RUSSIA. First was Russia. He praised the «bilateral
strategic partnership that will continue to develop and even
accelerate.» He expressed
satisfaction that Tajik-Russian
cultural and scientific ties have finally begun to be restored.
He then said that economic cooperation is especially important,
noting the Tajikistan «expects $2.5 billion in Russian
investment.»
11. (SBU) COMMENT: Considering
Moscow’s full-court press for
geo-strategic influence in Tajikistan since late 2004, this was
a surprisingly restrained assessment of the Tajik-Russian
bilateral relationship.
Especially glaring was Rahmonov’s
choice of words that Russian investment is «expected,» rather
than promised or confirmed. We
don’t want to read too much into
this, but it almost seemed as if he was saying, «OK, comrades,
if you mean it, follow through.»
END COMMENT.
12. (U) THE UNITED STATES. Next came the United States.
Rahmonov said that one of Tajikistan’s most important
achievements in the past year is «the expansion and further
development» of relations with the United States. He praised
the U.S.-Tajik partnership in combating terrorism and narcotics,
and U.S. support for border management that has led to greater
stability in Tajikistan and the entire region. Rahmonov once
again paid high tribute to the United States for «selflessly»
funding the Tajik-Afghan bridge over the Pyanzh River, to better
promote regional integration through the stability that comes
from prosperity. He explicitly
said he is ready further to
consolidate relations with «all senior U.S. Government
officials.» He noted that
U.S. economic, development, and
humanitarian assistance 2003-2005 was nearly $200 million, «with
no strings attached.» This
elicited what appeared to be
spontaneous and sustained applause from the audience.
13. (SBU) COMMENT: At close of business the night before the
speech, Embassy Dushanbe received a frantic call from the
presidency asking for the total dollar amount of all forms of
assistance 2003-2005. We
scrambled and came up with this
reasonably accurate ball-park figure, but suspect it may be
somewhat low, since we were unable accurately to calculate all
DOD assistance. END COMMENT.
14. (U) CHINA: Third in «the majors» was
China. Rahmonov
noted that all border demarcation issues have been resolved, and
that economic ties are growing.
He then focused on China’s
increasing economic support for major infrastructure projects in
Tajikistan, especially for land transportation routes and
electricity lines.
15. (U) COMMENT: China came in like gangbusters at the end of
2005 with a flurry of high-level visits and pledges for $560
million investment in telecom, transport, and energy. However,
in recent weeks, as the two countries have tried to negotiate
the specific details, especially the interest rate of Chinese
investment, there have been hurdles, and the final signing has
stalled. END COMMENT
16. (U) THE OTHERS, LIKE
IRAN: Rahmonov then rather
DUSHANBE 00000752 004.2 OF 004
perfunctorily ticked off other relations: the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, the European Union («would like closer
relations with Germany, France, and the United Kingdom»), the
Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic
Community, and the United Nations, «especially UNESCO.»
17. (U) Only then did Rahmonov
say, «Political will is needed
for better regional cooperation.»
At this point, he noted that
relations with Iran have «broadened and strengthened,»
especially with Tehran’s financing of the Anzob Tunnel and the
Sangtunda-II hydro-electric station.
Among other regional
players, Rahmonov said Afghanistan’s «growing stability can mean
broader relations.» From
India he expects assistance in
advanced information technology and the energy infrastructure.
Finally noted that relations with Turkey «have been important
from the beginning and will grow.»
He then very briefly gave a
nod to Arab nations («We expect greater investment,») East
Asia,
and Euro-Atlantic institutions.
18. (U) In what appeared to be
almost a perfunctory
after-thought, Rahmonov said that he values «constructive
relations» with international NGOs, but «they need to follow
their charters and our own laws.»
19. (SBU) COMMENT: While chatting after the speech with Suhrob
Sharipov, the reformist Director of the President’s Strategic
Research Center, which had produced the early drafts, the
Ambassador commented noncommittally that the speech had seemed
«well-balanced.»
Sharipov, looking exhausted but exhilarated,
replied, «You wouldn’t believe how hard we fought against the
competing factions to keep it balanced, fair to all, and
positive. But in the end we
won. Because he spoke it, it is
now policy.» END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61491
date: 4/24/2006 10:14
refid: 06ALMATY1489
origin: US Office Almaty
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 06DUSHANBE711
header:
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHTA #1489 1141014
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241014Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ALMATY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5064
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
—————— header ends —————-
C O N F I D E N T I A L ALMATY 001489
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN
TDA FOR SCOTT GREENIP AND DAN STEIN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2015
TAGS: ENRG, EPET, KZ, PGOV, PREL, TI, AF
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTRICITY:
AES EXPLORES PARTNERSHIP
WITH STATE OIL-AND-GAS SUBSIDIARY
REF: A. DUSHANBE 711
B. DUSHANBE 489
C. DUSHANBE 493
Classified By: Amb. John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).
1. (C) Summary: AES Country
Manager Dale Perry told Econoff
on April 17 that AES was near to signing an MOU with
«KMG-Energy,» a newly-created subsidiary of Kazakhstan’s
state-owned oil-and-gas company, KazMunaiGaz (KMG), to
cooperate in the construction and operation of regional
electricity transmission lines.
Discussions were moving
quickly, Perry observed, and an MOU could potentially be
signed before the end of April.
On the topic of electrical
generation, Perry all but conceded that AES would not be
granted a role in either the Sangtuda 1 or Rogun hydro
projects in Tajikistan. End
Summary.
2. (C) On April 3 Perry informed Ambassador Ordway that
representatives of a new KMG subsidiary, «KMG Energy,» had
recently approached Perry, asking to be included in two AES
initiatives — the construction of a new thermal power plant
in Ekibastuz (jointly with the Chinese), and the construction
and operation of Central-South Asian transmission lines.
Perry described «KMG Energy» as a recent creation of
presidential son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, with a few existing
power assets — including the Zhamboul and APC generating
stations — and ambitions to acquire more.
3. (C) On April 17, Perry told Econoff that talks with KMG
Energy had progressed to the point where the two companies
were in fundamental agreement on an MOU calling for
cooperation in the construction and operation of regional
transmission lines. Perry added
that he thought the MOU
could by the last week of April, in time to justify inviting
KMG Energy to a broader meeting of project actors in
Islamabad May 8-9.
4. (C) Perry spoke pessimistically of AES’s prospects for
joining Tajikistan’s Sangtuda 1 and Rogun projects.
Regarding Sangtuda 1, he commented that RAO UES had already
purchased four of six turbines, which likely precluded World
Bank financing of the project.
RAO UES Chairman Anatoliy
Chubais had recently been in Dushanbe, he added, and
reportedly had announced that RAO UES had «all the money we
need» to fund the project.
That, Perry said, added to the
Kremlin’s clear opposition to U.S. involvement in the
project, seemed to preclude AES participation. Perry also
remarked that «AES is no longer seeking a share» of the Ragon
1 project.» Instead, he
said, AES was interested in the
joint development of new hydro projects, on the order of
300-1000 MW.
5. (C) Comment: We do not know
much about «KMG Energy,» as
it is too new to have left many traces.
Kulibayev’s backing,
however, suggests that the company will have enough political
influence to help AES overcome any potential problems which
might arise in its transmission projects. It is worth noting
as well that KMG will soon be subsumed under Samruk, the new
state holding company. One of the
GOK’s goals in creating
Samruk is to prepare companies for total or partial IPOs.
Thus, the creation of «KMG Energy» may indicate the GOK’s
intention to take it partially or completely public at some
point. If that were to occur, association with AES would be a
major plus. End Comment.
ORDWAY
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61504
date: 4/24/2006 11:34
refid: 06DUSHANBE766
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
destination: 06DUSHANBE720
header:
VZCZCXRO2375
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0766/01 1141134
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 241134Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7323
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1571
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1581
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1555
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1550
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1504
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1510
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1495
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1384
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1328
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1543
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1582
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1112
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0899
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8535
—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000766
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, ECA, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, SCUL, KISL, KIRF, KPAO, IR, TI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR AND AMBASSADOR DISCUSS ISLAM, DRAFT
RELIGION LAW, IRANIAN HIJAB
REF: A. A) DUSHANBE 0720
B. B) DUSHANBE 0670
DUSHANBE 00000766 001.2 OF 002
1. (U) Sensitive but
unclassified. Please handle accordingly.
Not for public Internet.
2. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Ambassador met with Karomatullo Olimov,
Presidential Advisor on Social Development and Public Contacts,
April 21 at Olimov’s request for a wide-ranging discussion of
Islam and the role of religion in a secular state. The meeting
followed the visit of U.S. Speaker Ahmed Younis (ref B), and
provided an excellent opportunity to discuss Islam and Tajik
government policy. When asked
about the government’s new draft
law on religion, Olimov firmly stated he saw no need to fix
something that wasn’t broken. END
SUMMARY.
3. (SBU) Olimov asked for the
Ambassador’s advice how to engage
Islam in secular Tajikistan. He
reminded the Ambassador of the
hearty applause the United States received during President
Rahmonov’s April 20 speech to parliament, and reiterated that
Tajiks respect the work and the opinion of the United States and
its Ambassador on a variety of issues.
He said he had been
impressed by Ahmed Younis’ statements that moderate Islam plays
a constructive role with government and society in America. He
said he wished there had been time in Younis’ schedule for a
long conversation with him about his experience in the United
States and his impressions of Tajikistan.
4. (SBU) The Ambassador told
Olimov that Tajikistan had been
the highlight of Younis’ trip to Central Asia that had also
included stops in Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. He recounted
Younis’s impression that he had found the most sophisticated
understanding of Islam in Tajikistan, and that his experience
leading Friday prayers at the central mosque in Dushanbe had
been the highlight of his entire trip.
5. (SBU) When Olimov asked for an
opinion on how to confront
extremism, the Ambassador noted a paradox: strong government
pressure to prevent extremism too often has the opposite effect
and causes it to grow. The
Ambassador suggested engaging to the
extent possible those the government suspects of extremism. He
acknowledged this is not easy and not always successful, but is
better than throwing people in prison for their beliefs, no
matter how strongly we disagree with those beliefs. He noted
that USAID, at the request of the President’s Strategic Research
Center, will help facilitate a regional conference in Dushanbe
early in June on the role of traditional Islam in Central Asian
society.
6. (SBU) When asked his opinion
on the new draft law on
religious institutions proposed by the Committee on Religious
Affairs (ref A), Olimov replied firmly that he did not see the
need for a new law on religion and religious institutions. He
added, «What’s wrong with the current law? What problems has it
caused?» The Ambassador
agreed completely, and suggested that
the least government regulation of religious life is often the
best.
7. (SBU) In discussing the Tajik
government’s ban on hijabs in
public schools, Olimov distinguished between traditional Tajik
headscarves and Iranian-style hijabs.
He defended the
government’s October 2005 decision to ban true hijab in Tajik
schools. He said the government
debated the issue thoroughly,
and concluded a secular society could not approve
foreign-inspired religious symbols in public education
facilities. He reminded the
Ambassador that the headscarves
seen on city streets and in Tajik villages are considered more
traditional and cultural than religious, and firmly
DUSHANBE 00000766 002.2 OF 002
distinguished them from Iranian-inspired hijabs.
8. (SBU) COMMENT. This meeting was another dividend of Ahmed
Younis’s successful visit to Tajikistan, and illustrates once
again the great value of public diplomacy speakers. Olimov’s
negative comments on the draft religion law suggest it may not
have full Presidential support.
His emphasis that the hijab is
an Iranian import that has to be banned once again illustrates
the Tajik government’s continuing caution about Iran — economic
investment, yes; religion and politics, no. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61525
date: 4/24/2006 13:20
refid: 06DUSHANBE768
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED
destination:
header:
VZCZCXRO2522
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0768 1141320
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241320Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7327
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1573
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1583
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 1557
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1552
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 1506
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1512
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1497
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1386
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1330
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1114
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1545
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1584
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0901
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY 8539
RUEHML/AMEMBASSY MANILA PRIORITY 0045
—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000768
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, MANILA PASS TO ADB AMB. SPELTZ
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, ENRG, TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: SHAKE UP AT
MINISTRY OF ENERGY, MINISTER
DISMISSED
1. President Rahmonov signed a
decree April 24 dismissing the
Minister of Energy and other ministry officials. According to
press reports Abdullo Yerov will replace Jurabek Nurmahmadov as
the Minister of Energy. Yerov was
the former Minister of Energy
until replaced by Nurmahmadov in 2004, when he was demoted to a
deputy minister position.
2. Pulad Muhiddinov will by
Yerov’s First Deputy Minister,
moving over from the Executive Office of the President where he
was the chief of the Office on Energy and Industry. Muhiddinov
is replacing Alexey Silantiev, who will be the first deputy
chairman of Barqi Tojik, the government’s electricity monopoly.
The new chairman of Barqi Tojik will be Sharifhom Samiyev.
3. The decree also ordered the
replacement of two Deputy
Ministers, Emomiddin Aslov who oversaw coal, oil and gas, and
Negmatullo Inoyatov, in charge of the Sangtuda projects and the
ministry’s International Relations Department. Zarobiddin
Fayzullaev, previously the Deputy Chairman of the Committee on
Supervision and Industrial and Mine Safety, has been appointed
as a Deputy Minister.
4. COMMENT: Embassy sources say President Rahmonov has
been
unhappy with Nurmahmadov’s performance for some time; however,
his replacement, Yerov, is no more competent. Although, he used
to be the chief of a hydropower station, he is weak on policy
matters. Post will continue to
investigate the reasons behind
the reshuffling, and any possibility that this may signal a
desire for increased and more diversified foreign energy
investment, or simply accelerated investment from Russia,
Tajikistan’s «strategic partner.» END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 61799
date: 4/26/2006 9:57
refid: 06DUSHANBE776
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED
destination:
header:
VZCZCXRO4976
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0776/01 1160957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 260957Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7338
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ALMATY 1500
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1575
RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 0326
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ASTANA 0058
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1585
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 0557
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0014
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0022
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8551
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1554
RUEHVV/ISLAMIC CONFERENCE COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1508
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0014
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1514
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0274
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1499
RUSBC/RRF NEW DELHI
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT 0591
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY USAID
—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000776
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SCA/CEN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MASS, ECON, ETRD, TI
SUBJECT: INDIA LOOKS TO REVIVE SILK ROAD HERITAGE, NOT GREAT GAME
DUSHANBE 00000776 001.2 OF 002
This message is sensitive but unclassified, handle accordingly.
1. (SBU) In an April 26 meeting
with U.S. DCM, Indian Deputy
Chief of Mission Govinda Khampa took great pains to explain
India’s priorities in Tajikistan.
Far from extending India’s
«strategic reach,» the repair of the Ayni Airfield outside of
Dushanbe is part of India’s Technical Economic Cooperation
Program. When completed, the
airfield will be Tajikistan’s to
use as it sees fit. India had
contracted with a local firm to
repair the airfield, which had been out of service since the
1980s, but the contractor «completely failed» to complete the
contract. India then brought in
50-60 semi-skilled laborers
from the Border Roads Organization (BRO), an Indian civilian
government agency, to complete the repairs.
NO MIGS, NO AVIATION TRAINING
2. (SBU) When asked about a
Russian headline in «Nezavisimaya
Gazeta,» «Delhi Pushing Moscow Out,» Khampa claimed
«No, no, no,
Moscow has nothing to do with it.»
Despite several media
reports claiming that India will station up to two squadrons of
MiG-29s, establish a long-term presence, and provide military
training for Tajiks once the airfield is complete, Khampa
alternated between, «Those reports are speculation,» and
«We
have no information on that.»
He said India does not intend to
«own» the airbase, and India’s assistance is not part of a new
«geopolitical move.»
There is no firm date for completion of
the project. India would not
answer individual questions on
press reports about Ayni, Khampa said, because that would «get
messy.» Tajik Ministry of
Foreign Affairs officials have also
refused to comment publicly.
Foreign Ministry Spokesman
Sattarov said he could neither confir
