Переведено с использщованием AI
id: 112916
date: 6/21/2007 11:32
refid: 07DUSHANBE933
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 07DUSHANBE764|07DUSHANBE928|07STATE77753|07STATE81839
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000933
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/21/2017
TAGS: PREL, PREF, PGOV, EAID, KDEM, TI, AF, IR
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR’ S MEETING WITH HYDRO-POWERED FOREIGN MINISTER
REF: (A) STATE 81839; (B) STATE
77753; (C) DUSHANBE 928; (D) DUSHANBE 764
CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dushanbe, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
1. (C) Summary:
Ambassador met Foreign Minister Zarifi June
20 to discuss a laundry list of outstanding issues, including
the upcoming completion of the Nizhniy Pyanzh bridge, our
demarches on Afghan refugees (Ref A) and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization’s upcoming summit (Ref B), and the
status of registration for implementing partners National
Democratic Institute and Internews.
An energized and smooth
Zarifi once again demonstrated that although he has honed his
debate skills during his years in the West, he is still a bit of
an old thinker at heart; his one-note hydropower song is
increasing in volume. End
Summary.
2. (C) The Bridge: Zarifi, echoing President Rahmon in his
meeting with Admiral Fallon June 19 (septel), pressed hard for a
bridge opening date and the Secretary’s participation,
suggesting that even President Bush should come. Ambassador
said she expected some information next week. She raised our
concern that the governments of Tajikistan and Afghanistan have
not made any agreements about the use, maintenance and security
of the bridge. Zarifi initially
suggested the United States
should put something together, but the Ambassador pushed back,
saying it was high time for Tajik and Afghan officials to talk
directly, perhaps with U.S. facilitation or support. He agreed
to put the issue on the agenda for the upcoming meeting of
Deputy Foreign Ministers in Kabul in July. Ambassador also
raised the latest in a series of recurring cement problems —
although our contractor had signed a contract and pre-paid for
the final cement deliveries, the Dushanbe Cement Factory was
balking, saying it was planning to raise the price. Zarifi
promised to help but insisted that this was not bad faith on the
part of the government-owned factory, but rather a critical
shortage of cement to supply all the infrastructure projects:
«Why doesn’t the United States build a cement factory in
southern Tajikistan, which could also supply Afghan needs?» The
Ambassador replied that until contracts, such as the one signed
with the cement factory, were respected, no private company
would want to make that kind of major investment.
3. (C) Refugees: Ambassador raised U.S. concerns over the
treatment of refugees, in particular the recent round-up of more
than 100 Afghans living in Dushanbe and insistence that they
move out of the capital to the countryside where they are
registered. She expressed
particular disappointment over the
Ministry’s dipnote response on the issue, which basically said
that refugees were not an appropriate topic for our bilateral
relationship, and that the Tajik government preferred to talk to
us about economic development.
Ambassador noted that while we
are actively engaged in promoting trade and regional economic
integration, our bilateral relationship must also include human
rights. Zarifi first said that
the incident had been blown out
of proportion, and blamed unspecified «forces who want to
destabilize Tajikistan» by stirring up the issue, even linking
such forces (probably Uzbeks or maybe Russians) to the bombing
of the Supreme Court over the weekend (ref C). He said that
security forces had initially rounded up 120 Afghans at a
«filter» facility, and found that 46 of them had false
residency
documents, 14 were involved in contraband, and several were
renting apartments illegally and not paying taxes. «We know why
they want to live in the city and not the countryside.
Conditions for them in the countryside are no worse than for our
own citizens. But these Afghans
want to be here to traffic
narcotics.» Ambassador noted
that forcing Afghans out of the
cities violated Tajikistan’s international commitments, and that
the U.S. government would continue to follow refugee issues
closely. Zarifi replied: «I’ve seen the marches in
Washington. Your migrants aren’t
satisfied either. If the U.S.
government cares about migrants so much, why has your embassy in
Moscow never raised the deplorable treatment of Tajik migrants
in Russia, three or four of whom are killed every day?»
Ambassador noted that we have raised Tajikistan’s migrant
population in the annual Trafficking in Persons report, and
would try to find out whether Embassy Moscow had ever raised
this issue with the Russian government.
4. (C) Shanghai Cooperation
Organization: Zarifi promised a
formal response to our demarche soon, but once again echoing the
DUSHANBE 00000933 002 OF 002
President, indicated that Tajikistan is largely in agreement
with our position. On Iran, he
pushed for continued dialogue,
saying that «other forces» (Russia) would not be happy to see
the situation stabilized, since the instability plays into its
economic and political interests.
In an impresssive
demonstration of spin, he insisted that while Tajikistan had
said it supported Tehran’s «desire» to become a full member of
the organization, it had never said it supported its actual
membership, as there is currently no mechanism to do so. «Iran
is not a threat to us — to the contrary, it is helping us
develop infrastructure, both transport and hydropower. Why
aren’t your American companies doing the same? I know if you
told AES to build a power station they would do it. Why doesn’t
Gerald Metals build a power station, then they can buy even
cheaper aluminum?» Comment:
This was a slight variation on the
regular theme that if we want Tajikistan to be less involved
with Iran, we’ll have to put our money where our mouth is.
Zarifi refuses to believe our repeated assertions that Western
business invests where there is a reasonable environment and
potential for profit, not where governments direct it. End
Comment.
5. (C) National Democratic
Institute/Internews: On the
National Democratic Institute, Zarifi expressed surprise that
the Ministry of Justice had been unwilling to meet with Amcit
director Harry Bader to discuss registration. (The Ministry
apparently told Bader they wouldn’t talk to him because, in a
classic Catch-22, he didn’t have a long term visa and because
his organization was unregistered.)
He promised to help Bader
get a meeting, and also committed to renewing his visa one month
at a time here in Dushanbe while he pursues registration.
(Bader had resigned himself to flying to Bishkek each month to
obtain a new airport visa upon re-entry; so the Minister’s new
offer represents a slight improvement.
An MFA official called
the embassy June 21 to ask us to tell Bader to come in for his
visa extension.) On Internews,
Zarifi was unequivocal: no one
cares about radios, only about electricity. «The reason this
licensing process is stalled is because these radio stations are
not a priority for the government, so no one is working on it.»
Rejecting Ambassador’s arguments that democratic reforms must
accompany economic development to ensure that benefits accrue to
the people, Zarifi accused Ambassador of becoming Marie
Antoinette: «You are like
the princess who, when told the
people had no bread, suggested they eat kasha. How can you talk
about radios when we have no electricity for 5 months a year?»
(Note: The Principals’ Group of
resident Ambassadors and Donors
is also planning to take up the issue of Internews’ community
radio stations with the government — a welcome development.
End note.)
6. (C) Comment: The meeting offered nothing new, but rather
rehashed Zarifi’s previous practice of turning everything back
to a discussion of hydropower.
However, we have evidence that
our interventions along with UNHCR, demonstrating international
attention to the refugee issue, have prevented or postponed
further round-ups. Further, we
have kept the National
Democratic Institute and Internews present in country, despite
their lack of registration. This
past spring, the Principals’
Group helped secure some useful amendments to an otherwise poor
Law on Public Associations (ref D).
In this increasingly
challenging environment for democratic reform and human rights,
while we may not be able to move many of our issues forward, we
still seem to be able to slow the rate of backsliding. Our
interventions seem to get the most traction when we team up with
other missions and multilateral organizations.
JACOBSON
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 113058
date: 6/22/2007 10:14
refid: 07DUSHANBE935
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000935
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN
COMMERCE FOR ITA/RISD/DSTARKS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ENRG, EINV, EIND, TI, PGOV
SUBJECT: CANARGO PROSPECTS FOR GAS IN DUSHANBE
1. (SBU) Summary. The heads of U.S. oil and gas prospecting
company CanArgo recently visited Tajikistan in order to push the
Tajik government to sign a contract on development of oil and
gas fields in the southern Kulob region.
CanArgo has signed a
protocol with the government on development of these fields, and
is now seeking a production sharing agreement. While the gas
fields have real potential, CanArgo has discovered that the
Tajik tax code prohibits payment of taxes in-kind, precluding
the kind of production sharing agreement they had hoped to sign.
End Summary.
2. (SBU) The president of CanArgo
Energy Corporation, Dr. David
Robson, flew EconOffs to Kulob June 21 to check out a gas field
and a gas processing facility.
Robson, a geologist, discussed
technical details with local engineers, and seemed satisfied at
the prospects. While the gas
contains 15% sulfur, the
Canadian-built 10-year old gas cleaning facility produces clean
gas. As a goodwill gesture,
CanArgo plans to bring in a
portable 4MW gas-powered generator that would provide
electricity to the Kulob region this winter. (Kulob typically
demands 40-60MW, but supplies fell to 20MW last winter.) The
mayor of Kulob seemed very pleased at this prospect, and looked
forward to cooperating with CanArgo.
3. (SBU) CanArgo representatives
described moving forward on
the legislative fix necessary for the production sharing
agreement as «one step forward, two steps back.» They are
working principally with the State Committee on Investments, and
with Minister of Energy and Industry Gulov, but they have the
sense no one is pushing from the Tajik side. We put them in
touch with USAID-funded Pragma which is providing legal advice
to the Investments Committee on making Tajik legislation more
amenable to investment. CanArgo
hopes that Deputy Prime
Minister Ghulomov will push the whole project along, but is
afraid Gazprom’s influence with the government may prove to be
problematic for CanArgo.
4. (SBU) CanArgo is spinning off
its Central Asian company,
Tethys Petroleum Limited, next week.
Tethys will be listed on
the Canadian stock exchange, and it is Tethys that would be
working here (they have about 8 million USD to invest if things
work out). We told them they
would need to re-qualify with the
Department of Commerce as an American company based on ownership
for us to be able to do direct advocacy.
If that happens, we
told them we would be happy to raise specifics with government
officials, both orally and in writing, as needed.
5. (SBU) CanArgo is thinking
about whether a government decree
on the production sharing agreement would be enough of a
guarantee to start work, with the legislation to come later. Of
course, the Tajik side would like CanArgo to get to work right
away, and settle the details about production sharing after
production has begun. Who would
pay for any gas produced is
also up in the air, as any near-term production would go to the
Tajik market. CanArgo has made
several trips to Tajikistan,
however, and have shown that their interest in developing gas in
Tajikistan is genuine.
JACOBSON
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 113427
date: 6/26/2007 11:34
refid: 07DUSHANBE967
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED
destination:
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000967
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAID, ECON, EAGR, ENRG, TI, UZ
SUBJECT: PENJIKENT, TAJIKISTAN: ISOLATED BY REGIONAL BUREAUCRACY AND
GEOGRAPHY, BUT STILL VIBRANT
DUSHANBE 00000967 001.2 OF 003
1. Summary: A June 20-22 trip to
Penjikent and Aini districts
in western Tajikistan illuminated how bilateral problems with
Uzbekistan strangle the economy and trade for Tajik districts in
the Zarafshan valley. In
Penjikent city, officials and citizens
expressed support for President Rahmon, but noted that every
family relies on remittances from Russia to make ends meet. In
addition, the closed border means that Tajik agricultural
products cannot access railways and markets in Samarkand,
Uzbekistan, only 60 kilometers to the west, but must instead be
transported over high mountain passes and terrible roads to
Dushanbe or Khujand. U.S.-funded
assistance projects have
drastically reduced malnutrition rates in remote mountain
villages by training village health committees and workers, but
some communities remain snowed in four to five months each year,
accessible only by donkey or foot, with no health care or fresh
food. End Summary.
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A ROCK ~ AND MORE ROCKS
——————————————— —————
———————
2. The wide valley of Penjikent
district lies between two
craggy mountain ranges, jutting into Uzbekistan. In the Soviet
days, and up until the Uzbeks closed the border in 1998, people
in Penjikent and the greater Zarafshan river valley looked to
Samarkand to export their produce and tobacco, and used the
Samarkand rail connections for imports and exports. The Uzbek
border has now become a major obstacle to travel and trade.
Only residents of Penjikent city and the areas within 50 km of
the border can cross for up to five days without a visa.
Penjikent shops displayed some Uzbek goods-Coca Cola, juice,
bottled water, chocolate and ice cream, but the lack of customs
services at the border means that commerce is restricted to
suitcase traders and smugglers.
Tajik officials doubt that the
Uzbek government will lift the bureaucratic restrictions on
border crossings any time in the near future.
3. Penjikent district has little
industry — a single cannery, a
tobacco factory and a British-owned gold mine (that the Chinese
are considering buying out) — and the economy relies on
tobacco, potatoes, rice, wheat, grapes, orchards and vegetable
plots. Archeologists have been
excavating the ancient ruins
outside of Penjikent for many years and hope to turn them into a
tourist attraction, along with the burial ground of the tenth
century Tajik poet Rudaki. Many
Tajik journalists, writers and
poets hail from Penjikent and a governmental official promised
PolOff that her visit to the inspirational region would «open
her talents for poetry.»
Tourism, like commerce, was limited by
the border although hikers sometimes come from Samarkand through
special tour companies to trek the through the famed Fan
mountains to Dushanbe. (Comment: After two jostling days in the
car, PolOff would have preferred to return to Dushanbe on foot.
End Comment.)
4. PolOffs endured almost nine
hours of bone-jarring roads and
the 3500 meter Anzob pass to reach Penjikent June 20, a trip
that as late as 1994 took less than six hours. Deputy District
Chairman Zafarjon Atoev and Hakimboy Makhkamov were upbeat about
Penjikent’s prospects, but noted that labor remittances from
Russia keep families in the district going. Despite the closed
border and open bilateral tension over energy, the district
enjoyed a steady supply of electricity and gas from Uzbekistan
last winter, with several hours in the mornings and evenings
(even when other parts of Tajikistan were completely dark).
Geography shielded the Zarafshan valley from the Tajik civil war
— a strategically destroyed bridge literally cut the valley off
from the fighting in the south and residents reported no
fallout.
5. Although farmers in Penjikent
carry none of the debt
burdening cotton growers in the south, the farmers working the
district’s 20,000 hectares face the challenges of poor
transportation and a lack of market access. Makhkamov claimed
Penjikent wine once took a gold medal at a Moscow competition.
(Comment: California wines have nothing to fear should Tajik
wines hit the world market.
Vinegar producers, beware. End
Comment.) Penjikent’s biggest
liability is the poor condition
of the roads linking north and south — something officials
hoped will be remedied after the Chinese finish reconstructing
the Dushanbe-Khujand road in 2009.
Two government officials
(and alumni of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Cochran
Fellowship Program) echoed Makhkamov’s comments about
DUSHANBE 00000967 002.2 OF 003
Penjikent’s agricultural potential, noting the lack of food
processing facilities and transportation routes limited the
farmers’ ability to grow anything other than potatoes and
tobacco as significant cash crops.
IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE, AMERICA FIGHTING MALNUTRITION
——————————————— —————
——————————
6. Despite the abundance of
produce and food, many remote parts
of the district until recently had childhood malnutrition rates
approaching 50 percent, due to disease and a lack of
understanding about nutrition.
Working in 143 villages in
Penjikent district and 61 in Aini district, the U.S.-funded
non-governmental organization Save the Children has reduced
those rates to eight percent or lower in many communities.
Project managers took PolOffs two hours up into the Fan
mountains, to see community health workers teaching young
children about hygiene and nutrition, and to meet a group of
young women, and their mothers-in-law, talking about breast
feeding. Save the Children’s
Gulchera Boboeva estimated that
the five year, $1 million project had helped 36,000 children
under five years old and 60,000
women of reproductive age.
7. Many mountain communities are
completely cut off from the
main roads once the snows fall in October. The villages subsist
on food grown in small, steep vegetable plots during the short
summer season, and money sent from Russia. Aside from the
occasional old man, women populated the villages — and without
men to work the land, grandmothers cared for the children while
the younger women farmed. Save the Children has targeted
caregivers as well as mothers with its health messages, and also
trained village health workers to help identify problems and get
patients to medical care sooner rather than later.
8. Save the Children workers
described an outstanding working
relationship with local government officials and the central
hospital, reporting no hassles or bureaucratic barriers to
prevent them from conducting their work.
Boboeva noted
wistfully that because the program is scheduled to end in
September 2007, and no new funding has been identified, Save may
cease its operations entirely.
She felt confident that elements
of the program were sustainable, but noted that many communities
needed continued monitoring and technical assistance to ensure
that their inhabitants remained healthy.
AINI AT THE CROSSROADS
——————————————
9. To the east of Penjikent, Aini
district sits at Tajikistan’s
northern crossroads, equidistant from Dushanbe and Khujand —
but much closer to Samarkand than to either Tajik city.
District chairman Shodikul Bobojonov claims the district is 98
percent mountains. Like
Penjikent, residents of Aini rely
heavily on labor migrants in Russia to supplement the small
family farms. Several mining
operations are located in the Aini
mountains — including the U.S. company COMSUP’s antimony mine,
and a coal deposit that Tajik officials hope to develop for a
thermal power station. However,
Bobojonov criticized the idea
of building a thermal power station, noting it would be bad for
the district’s air quality and environment. «We have so much
hydro-power potential,» he said, that it doesn’t make sense to
exploit coal. He observed that
the Chinese road construction
hadn’t brought much economic benefit to the district, but
predicted that once it was completed, there would be more
commerce, and tourists. Bobojonov
also lamented the sad state
of the district’s snow removal equipment, noting most of the
machinery was from the 1950s-1970s and not hydraulic. Like
Penjikent, Aini receives a limited but steady supply of
electricity and gas from Uzbekistan through the winter.
10. In addition to Save the Children’s child survival project, a
European Union-funded program through the organization German
Agro Action targets rural villages eking out a living on the
combined 2000 hectares of arable lands.
Project Manager Ira
Pavlovski said they work with families — many headed by women
— to improve the quality and quantity of foods grown. The
district lies too high to grow many crops or fruits, but
potatoes have proven a successful cash crop — these are also
limited by the transportation problems on the bumpy road.
Pavlovski underscored the excellent cooperation she enjoys with
the district government for their projects, and commented that
DUSHANBE 00000967 003.2 OF 003
the government and organizations working in the districts had
recently held a coordination meeting to ensure better
cooperation and avoid duplication of efforts.
11. Comment: Unlike other parts of Tajikistan, where
electricity and unemployment top the lists of problems for the
citizens and government, Penjikent and Aini seem well-supplied
with gas and light from Uzbekistan, even as Uzbek politics
prevents their districts from reaching bigger markets and
trading freely. The openness and
cooperation non-governmental
organizations enjoy with local authorities demonstrates that
while government officials in Dushanbe might view many
non-governmental organizations as suspect, at the local
government level, a stronger attitude of cooperation has led to
some serious success. End
Comment.
JACOBSON
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 113730
date: 6/28/2007 11:25
refid: 07DUSHANBE969
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: SECRET//NOFORN
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 000969
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/21/2017
TAGS: PREL, MASS, PGOV, TI, AF, IR
SUBJECT: EXTENDED MEETING WITH PRESIDENT RAHMON DOMINATES CENTCOM
COMMANDER’S VISIT TO TAJIKISTAN
CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dushanbe, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d)
1. (C) Summary. In an
unexpectedly long meeting with the Tajik
President, which dominated Admiral Fallon’s visit June 19,
Emomali Rahmon hailed U.S.-Tajik relations as one of the first
priorities in Tajik foreign policy and stated that Tajikistan is
interested in further development of these relations on multiple
fronts, including military and security relations. Rahmon
stated that he was satisfied with the current level of military
relations and thanked Admiral Fallon for the newly constructed
bridge between Afghanistan and Tajikistan, which will open in
August. The Centcom Commander
lauded Rahmon’s strong
declaration of Tajikistan’s continued independence, even while
noting Tajikistan’s special relationship with Russia. He
especially recognized the multiple forces pulling on newly
sovereign Tajikistan, emphasizing common approaches to problems
in which Tajikistan and the United States have a mutual
interest. Admiral Fallon thanked Rahmon for continued overflight
rights and the stationing of French forces in Dushanbe and
stated that he would like to see an increase in military
educational programs.
2. (C) President Rahmon’s main
theme was the importance of
resolving the Afghan conflict and supporting the weak Karzai
government and all layers of Afghan society. At one time
stating that Tajikistan was at the confluence of too many
competing influences, Rahmon enumerated his open door policy,
inclusive of all countries except for Uzbekistan. Obliquely
referring to «other» countries, President Rahmon gave a sober
assessment of how Russia would profit from expanded conflict in
the Middle East. Rahmon strongly
emphasized the utility of
American-Iranian dialog in the settlement of security problems
in the Middle East. President
Rahmon concurred with Admiral
Fallon’s assertion that Central Asian countries should not let
Russia dominate the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to advance
its own ambitions. End summary.
Developing the personal relationship
—————————————
3. (C) The Commander, U.S.
Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral
William Fallon, his foreign policy advisor Ambassador Richard
Roth, Ambassador Jacobson and the Defense Attache attended a two
and one half hour meeting with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon,
his Presidential Advisor on National Security Affairs, Erkin
Rahmatolloyev, and his advisor on Legal Affairs, Zafar Aliev.
After this meeting, Admiral Fallon and Ambassador Jacobson met
for fifteen-minutes with the President alone. The Defense
Minister was out of the country and so was unable to attend the
meeting but the absence of any other uniformed military and
security related officials was somewhat puzzling. Embassy
concerns that the last minute inclusion of the Presidential
Legal Advisor was in preparation for raising this past weekend’s
assault and medical evacuation of CENTCOM military personnel
(REF Dushanbe 924) proved unfounded, as the Tajiks did not raise
this issue.
4. (SBU) The meeting, originally
scheduled for one hour,
stretched to almost two-and-one half hours, an unexpected and
positive sign of President Rahmon’s willingness to engage with
Admiral Fallon. President Rahmon
praised his positive personal
contacts with previous CENTCOM Commanders, Generals Abizaid and
Franks, and emphasized that his relationship with them developed
beyond mere acquaintances into actual friendships. Since Rahmon
previously served in the Soviet Navy, both in the Far East and
Black Sea fleets, he and Admiral Fallon found common ground in
their mutual naval service, with both happy neither of them
ended up in the submarine service.
President Rahmon ensured
Admiral Fallon that he was welcome in Tajikistan at any time,
saying «just give us an hour’s notice so we can set it up».
Rahmon confirmed that he was ready to discuss any global or
regional issue and would help in the resolution of problems
wherever possible.
Afghanistan first and foremost
DUSHANBE 00000969 002 OF 004
———————————
5. (C) The most consistent theme in Rahmon’s often impassioned
appeals to Admiral Fallon was the importance of a stable
Afghanistan for Tajikistan.
President Rahmon exhorted Admiral
Fallon several times in the course of the meeting to take
further concrete steps to solve the Afghan conflict, stating
that its resolution was the single best form of assistance that
the United States could provide to support Tajikistan’s
sovereignty and development.
Rahmon said that Tajikistan needed
stability in Afghanistan, the same as humans need oxygen. In
addition to building the effectiveness of the Afghan national
army and improving the security situation against the Taliban,
President Rahmon asked that CENTCOM assist in bolstering the
reach and legitimacy of the weak Karzai government. The
President added that no other viable leadership alternative was
evident in Afghanistan. Rahmon
also implored the CENTCOM
Commander to commit the necessary resources for additional
economic and social programs in support of all layers and
factions of Afghan society, without which no enduring peace
would be possible. Both President
Rahmon and Admiral Fallon
highlighted the significance of the forthcoming bridge opening
between the two countries in furthering the economic prospects
of both Tajikistan and Afghanistan, extending both south to the
Pakistan coast and north to Kazakhstan and Russia. Rahmon also
emotionally appealed to Admiral Fallon to influence Pakistan,
where the Taliban was born, to cease its support for extremists
and terrorists as a key to stabilizing Afghanistan.
Rahmon urges dialog with Iran
———————————
6. (C) The Tajik President
welcomed the renewal of U.S.-Iranian
dialog last month and urged continued, intensified dialog,
without intermediaries, to resolve the problem in Iraq as well
as other unresolved problems in the Middle East. Admiral Fallon
cited the destabilizing role which the Iranians are playing both
in Iraq and Afghanistan as especially troubling. Admiral Fallon
also expressed dissatisfaction with Iranian nuclear aspirations,
to which President Rahmon did not specifically respond. Rahmon
cited several previous visits to Iran, the most recent being in
may 2007, in which he discussed numerous issues with president
Ahmadinejad, including U.S.-Iranian relations. President Rahmon
said his impression was that Ahmadinejad had changed his
perspective and that he was ready for an expanded, step-by-step
dialog with the United States, especially as it related to
solving the Afghan and Iraq conflicts.
Regarding Ahmadinejad,
President Rahmon stated that dealing with the worst person in
the world is a better alternative than war. President Rahmon
appealed to Admiral Fallon, and claimed that he did the same
with Ahmadinejad, to resolve all disputes through dialog,
without intermediaries.
7. (C) Recalling that he
conducted over 40 months of
negotiations before arriving at a peace settlement in the Tajik
civil war, Rahmon stated that dialog with Iran to clarify U.S.
intentions would go a long way towards improving the situation
both in Iraq and the greater Middle East. President Rahmon
informed Admiral Fallon of Iran’s open support of the Islamic
Revival Party of Tajikistan during the Tajik civil war, claiming
that Iran’s eventual goal was to import its version of political
Islam into Tajikistan. Rahmon
claimed that he openly blamed
Iran for its behavior and that it subsequently admitted its
mistake and promised not to undertake such actions in the
future. However Rahmon noted that
Iran continues to support the
Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan today and that Tajikistan is
taking its own (unspecified) actions on this issue.
Russia: beneficiary of conflict in Iran
——————————————
8. (C) Rahmon claimed that
Iranian-Russian relations are
currently at a low point. Rahmon
used the Russian proverb —
appetite comes with eating — to describe a Russia that is
currently awash in oil revenues and therefore more apt to take
imperial approaches to world issues.
Rahmon indirectly implied
several times that «other» countries were benefiting from the
DUSHANBE 00000969 003 OF 004
current conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, and that expanded
conflict in the Middle East, (comment: read a U.S. attack on
Iran. End comment) would profit these same countries. President
Rahmon highlighted a recent report in which the Russian media
portrayed a map with detailed U.S. invasion plans for Iran. A
widening of conflict in the Middle East would have the duel
effects of lowering America’s image in the world and
significantly raising world oil prices.
Rahmon noted that
Tajikistan would also suffer from higher oil prices since they,
unlike the other energy-rich countries in Central Asia, have no
fossil-fuel reserves upon which to rely in a crisis.
9. (C) Later in the one-on-one
session, the President was less
elliptical about Russia than in the broader meeting, stating
outright that «Russia does not want stability in Iran and
Afghanistan. Lack of stability
there means that Central Asians
are forced to export north, and this is in Russia’s interest.
Russia would like to see a U.S. military attack on Iran, because
it would prolong the instability, and double world oil prices.»
In response to Rahmon’s assertions that Russia wanted to
dominate and control Central Asia, Admiral Fallon said «this is
one reason why the countries of Central Asia should not let
Russia dominate the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and use it
to advance its ambitions.»
Rahmon agreed, noting that the
Central Asian Economic Community had ceased to have any real
value since Uzbekistan insisted on inviting Russia. President
Rahmon reemphasized Tajikistan’s sovereignty with regard to
negative Russian influence, citing Russian interference in
Kyrgyzstan’s affairs as a bad precedent.
10. (C) Rahmon also described
«other» countries, in addition to
Iran, who were supplying weapons that fueled the conflicts in
both Iraq and Afghanistan. In
addition to supporting Shiites in
Iraq, others were supporting the Sunnis in Iraq. Likewise the
Taliban in Afghanistan had supporters other than Pakistan as
well. Rahmon suggested these
countries were protecting their
economic interests. By creating a buffer zone devoid of
transportation or energy infrastructure, Central Asian countries
are forced to look towards the north for their export options.
Open door policy, except for Uzbekistan
——————————————
11. (C) In the context of other
serious problems, which inhibit
better cooperation amongst Central Asian countries, President
Rahmon devoted significant time to Uzbekistan and the
destabilizing effect of President Karimov, perhaps understating
that their bilateral relations «are not very good.»
Nonetheless, after Admiral Fallon enumerated his other Central
Asian visits, except Uzbekistan, Rahmon encouraged Admiral
Fallon to also visit Uzbekistan on his next trip to the region.
Admiral Fallon responded that several outstanding U.S.-Uzbek
diplomatic issues prevented him from visiting Uzbekistan on this
trip to Central and South Asia.
Stating that Tajikistan has an
open door policy and good relations with everyone except
Uzbekistan, Rahmon outlined border conflicts including over 300
casualties from Uzbek-laid minefields, cross border attacks, and
Karimov’s obstructionism of Tajik hydropower development plans.
Rahmon also stated that Russia
and China also frequently side
with Uzbekistan in hindering Tajikistan’s development of hydro
power options. President Rahmon
stated that he had studied
President Karimov for more than fifteen years and found him to
be extremely inconsistent. In
response to Admiral Fallon’s
question about whether there are any alternatives to Karimov,
Rahmon replied, «of course there are alternatives. Who could
have predicted Berdimuhammedov would follow Saparmurat? But
Karimov will never leave power as long as he lives. He is
afraid.» When Fallon asked
whether there was anyone who could
provide advice to Karimov, Rahmon said «he doesn’t listen to
anyone. He doesn’t trust even
those closest to him. He is
sick.»
Security and military relations
———————————-
12. (C) In addition to countering
terrorism, President Rahmon
stated that stemming the flow of illegal narcotics was the
biggest problem for Tajikistan.
Rahmon said he was willing to
DUSHANBE 00000969 004 OF 004
take active steps using his military and security forces to
combat both problems and appreciated any assistance that CENTCOM
could render to any of these forces to fight on the front lines
of these global threats. Rahmon
stressed several times that he
was extremely satisfied with the level of military cooperation,
and that he hoped for an intensified relationship, especially in
terms of material support. The
President also highlighted
CENTCOM training events as being very useful. President Rahmon
specifically expressed his gratitude for the recent opening of
two U.S.-sponsored border posts on the Tajik-Afghan border,
stating that it was a valuable contribution in the fight against
many of the transnational threats in Tajikistan and the region.
13. (C) Admiral Fallon stated his
first priority was education,
including specific military training such as officer and
non-commissioned officer professional development and language
skills, so that younger military servicemen have the opportunity
to gain a wider understanding of the world and what options are
available to them. Admiral Fallon
challenged Rahmon to allow
these young servicemen the opportunity to exercise leadership,
which they are more than capable of handling. This education
not only benefits the military forces but also society as a
whole. Admiral Fallon expressly
thanked President Rahmon for
the provision of overflight rights and the stationing of French
International Security Assistance Forces on Tajik soil, both of
which are playing key roles in stabilizing Afghanistan.
14. (S//NF) Rahmon said his government had information about
«our old militants» and extremists who were planning to move
out
of Pakistan across the Wakhan corridor through Gorno-Badakshan
Autonomous region into the Fergana Valley, destination Osh,
Kyrgyzstan. Admiral Fallon noted
U.S. efforts to get the
Pakistani government to act against these terrorists, which is
why they’re now looking at moving.
Rahmon promised to provide
specific information via the Ministry of State Security to the
Defense Attache. Admiral Fallon
said he would welcome any
specifics that would help him interdict these militants.
Rahmon: a vision for the future
———————————
15. (C) Rahmon’s vision for the
future included continuation on
the path towards enlightened democracy, endorsed of course by a
people’s referendum, a continued open door foreign policy, and
energy and economic independence from Uzbekistan and Russia to
remove Tajikistan from the black hole in which it currently
exists. In addition to the new
southern route to South Asia
facilitated by the U.S.-funded bridge, Rahmon mentioned plans
for two new bridges to Afghanistan from Tajikistan’s Shurobad
and Farkhor regions. Rahmon also
highlighted new lines of
communication towards the east to China via the Kulma Pass, and
to the north through Osh, Kyrgyzstan onward to Almaty,
Kazakhstan, thereby avoiding Uzbekistan.
16. (C) Comments. Overall, the extended meeting demonstrated a
very good first step in building the personal relationship
between President Rahmon and Admiral Fallon necessary for
CENTCOM to have influence and succeed in Tajikistan. Post
welcomes Admiral Fallon’s additional emphasis on military
educational programs for Tajikistan, as we consider our
educational and exchange programs to give the most valuable
return on investment.
17. (U) POC: Lieutenant Colonel
Dan Green, USA, Defense and
Army Attache, USDAO Dushanbe, voice: (992)(37) 229-2701,
cell:(992) (93) 570-7030, classified email: [email protected]
or [email protected], unclass email: HYPERLINK
«mailto:[email protected]»[email protected] .
JACOBSON
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 114141
date: 7/3/2007 6:34
refid: 07DUSHANBE989
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
destination: 07DUSHANBE989
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—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000989
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, TI
SUBJECT: 10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF TAJIKISTAN’S PEACE ACCORDS: BUT IS
THERE REAL RECONCILIATION?
DUSHANBE 00000989 001.2 OF 002
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:
At a two-day UN-hosted conference on ten
years of peace and reconciliation in Tajikistan, Tajik and
foreign dignitaries discussed the roles they played in ending
Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war.
Instead of using the
conference as an opportunity to expand political dialogue and
pluralism, Tajik President Rahmon celebrated the end of a
conflict he feels is far in the past.
Many of the delegates
from the United Nations and other organizations missed an
opportunity to prod Tajikistan to pursue a meaningful
reconciliation, ignoring the fact that the Tajik government
continues to shut opposition voices out of power. END SUMMARY.
2. (U) The government and the international
community can be
proud of creating and maintaining peace in Tajikistan after the
civil war. Speaker after speaker
at the June 25-26
International Conference on the 10th Anniversary of the General
Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and National Accord in
Tajikistan echoed the government’s conviction that
reconciliation had been achieved.
President Rahmon pinned
medals on the UN special envoy and dignitaries from neighboring
countries involved in ending the conflict. Many paid homage to
the late opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri for his role in
facilitating the peace process.
Former U.S. Ambassador Grant
Smith also received the Medal of Friendship.
3. (U) The Iranian Charge d’Affaires, Ahmad
Ajalulion, used
his June 25 comments to criticize foreign influence in Central
Asia, particularly from the United States and Western Europe.
Ajalulion said that foreign forces used terrorism to justify
their presence, but in fact created a more fertile environment
for terrorists. Building upon
this commentary, he called on
foreign forces to reduce pressure on Iran.
THE REALITY OF PEACE
4. (U) Only a few speakers challenged the
conference’s general
acceptance of the status quo as a meaningful peace. Arno
Siefert, a Senior Researcher at the OSCE Center in Hamburg who
previously served as a political officer at the OSCE center in
Dushanbe argued that the government’s suppression of political
pluralism was leading to a total absence of democratic
expression, which would only continue to marginalize those who
do not agree with the government.
Seifert pointed out that
growing social and economic gaps in Tajikistan may cause serious
conflicts and challenged the government to address regionalism
and clan-based politics.
5. (U) Islamic Renaissance Party
Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri and
former United Tajik Opposition leader Akbar Turajonzoda
highlighted some of the shortcomings which have plagued
Tajikistan during the reconciliation period. Despite the
General Agreement dictating the government allocate thirty
percent of elected and appointed government positions to former
opposition members, Turajonzoda noted that in reality only three
to five percent of such positions are held by officials not
aligned with the ruling party.
Some conference participants
excused the deficiency by suggesting a lack of former opposition
members qualified to hold additional posts. (Note: No one
raised the issue of shortcomings in Tajikistan’s electoral
system that favor the ruling party at the expense of the
opposition. End note.)
6. (U) Kabiri noted that although
National Unity Day
commemorates peace, it is a sad day for many who lost family
members and friends in the civil war.
He also lamented Nuri’s
death in August 2006. Kabiri
reiterated Seifert’s message that
the ruling party must allow varying viewpoints, either from the
opposition or from within the government, or it risks long-term
instability. He pointed out that
although the government had
failed to enforce the thirty percent power-sharing deal, the
Islamic Renaissance Party remained committed to peace, rather
than resorting to violence as other parties might have. He
cautioned that the generation of politicians involved in the
peace negotiations have left the political field, either
voluntarily, by old age or political maneuvering, leaving a new
generation who have forgotten the difficult lessons of civil
war.
PEACE THROUGH ROSE-COLORED GLASSES
DUSHANBE 00000989 002.2 OF 002
7. (SBU) Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrohon Zarifi
reacted to
Kabiri’s comments by denying that the democratic process has
stagnated. In front of the entire
audience, he sharply chided
Kabiri for speaking at educational and political institutions in
the United States without bothering to engage his «brothers»
at
the Tajik Embassy in Washington.
(Comment: This is not the
first time Kabiri has received criticism for his speaking
engagements in the West. Some
conference participants,
including Kabiri himself, chuckled at the Foreign Minister’s
diatribe which seemed out of place and, if anything, reinforced
the government’s intolerance of opposing viewpoints. End
Comment.)
8. (SBU) Tajik government officials chose to deny that internal
political problems exist and wanted instead to concentrate on
their vision of the future, including the need for economic and
hydropower development, rather than discussing the
reconciliation process. (Note:
This is fully in line with the
Tajik government’s mantra of «economics before politics.» End
note.)
9. (SBU) Towards the end of the conference, Vladimir Goryayev,
Acting Director of the UN Political Department’s Asia Pacific
Division, crystallized the generally self-congratulatory
attitude that characterized the previous two days, rejecting the
notion that there are still opposing «sides» within the
country,
and reminding the audience that Tajikistan is one nation, with
one «side,» and with one future.
10. (SBU) COMMENT: Whether the
government recognizes it
publicly or not, there are those in Tajikistan — both
mainstream and extremist — who disagree with government
policies. Unless opposition
groups have access to government
and a voice in the power structure, stability and peace remain
tenuous. While Tajikistan has
enjoyed ten years of stability
buttressed by slow but steady economic development, Tajik
society lacks the social underpinnings of tolerance that will
ensure its future. We understand
that until the last minute,
the government did not want to share the stage with any one from
the former opposition; it did so only under UN pressure. The
inclusion of a few opposition speakers and award for the
deceased Nuri were positive, but the conference, in the end, was
a missed opportunity to look forward.
END COMMENT.
JACOBSON
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
id: 114505
date: 7/6/2007 7:26
refid: 07DUSHANBE1030
origin: Embassy Dushanbe
classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
destination:
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—————— header ends —————-
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001030
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, EAID, SNAR, TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN A DECADE AFTER THE CIVIL WAR
DUSHANBE 00001030 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) Ten years after peace accords ended the
1992-1997
civil war, President Emomali Rahmon has taken a great deal of
credit for pulling Tajikistan out of conflict and setting it on
a path which he claims could be a model for other post-conflict
societies. At a June 25-26
conference commemorating the Moscow
signing of the peace agreements (reftel), government officials
and visiting diplomats praised the progress made over the last
decade and focused on Tajikistan’s future, while a few lone
voices cautioned that the peace could not be sustained without
allowing all Tajik citizens freedom of political expression.
The anniversary of the end of the civil war provides an
important moment to evaluate Tajikistan’s present, understand
how far Tajikistan has come, and what remains to be done to
ensure stability and prosperity.
THE BLEAK BASELINE
2. (SBU) Peace and stability did
not come with the stroke of a
pen. In June 1997, Tajikistan was
exhausted after fighting
between regional factions had left 50,000-70,000 dead (the
government estimate is even higher) and hundreds of thousands
displaced, afraid to go back to communities riddled with
landmines. Food was
scarce-staples such as flour and oil
sometimes had to be smuggled over the border from Uzbekistan.
Militias and bandits roamed the streets, which were empty after
five in the afternoon. The
school system barely functioned and
some families sent their children abroad for education and
safety. President Rahmon’s
supporters, including the Popular
Front and others largely from Kulyob, and the United Tajik
Opposition, a coalition of the Islamic Renaissance Party and
separatists generally from Khorog and Khujand, reached a truce,
but mistrust and skepticism existed on both sides.
3. (SBU) The «General
Agreement on the Establishment of Peace
and National Accord in Tajikistan» promised a new era of
reconciliation and national unity, but ten years later, the
agreement has a mixed legacy, one of security at the price of
democracy, and economic consolidation rather than overall
prosperity. We outline
achievements and disappointments below.
THE GOOD THINGS
4. (SBU) Peace:
Tajikistan enjoys true internal security and
calm. Gone are the curfews, the
bandits roaming the streets
and holding people at gunpoint, or kidnapping young wom
